I wrote the following as part of my half yearly letter to subscribers. Hope you find it useful

When I started investing, I thought there is some magic formulae to grow your capital. After 10 years of search, I realized that the answer was staring me in the face.

The key to wealth creation was very simple – Save aggressively and invest patiently

I had always done the first,  but was doing it wrong with the second part of the equation. Like most young, hot blooded guys, my focus was to make the highest possible return in the shortest time possible. After a decade of doing that, I realized that the stress and effort was not worth it.

In addition to the lost sleep, I was reluctant to invest most of my capital to my own stock selection. Most likely, it must have been the risk of my approach which made me cautious

Key decisions

Around the start the advisory I made a few key decisions based on my past experience

• All of my Liquid networth in India (excluding my real estate and some smaller stuff like LIC) would go into stocks (my own picks)
• I would invest my family’s capital in the same manner
• I will not shoot for the moon and my focus would be on preservation of capital above everything else

These decisions led to the following actions

• No investments in derivatives, margin trading, IPO or any high risk situation
• No reaching for yield in debt. Keep most of my capital in stocks and the rest in FD
• No short term trading

In other words, the sleep test. Can I sleep well in the night with my current portfolio ?

The decision to  focus all my investments in one bucket – A diversified portfolio of stocks lead to a simpler portfolio, lower risk and a high allocation. There is no point making 40% CAGR if you allocate only 10% of your networth to it. A 20% CAGR with 80% allocation will lead to better results is a better option

I carried the same approach into the advisory as we have always believed in eating our cooking . Outside of a few experiments which if successful, make it to the recommended list, all my investments in India are the same as the Model portfolio. It has kept my life simple and the absolute returns are good enough for me

I am now thinking on how I can simplify my financial life further. A few thoughts

• Identify a few stocks which have the benefit of a long term trend. Once you are invested, be patient, till the trend is valid
• Eliminate all debt including contingent ones. An example of contingent debt is money for your kid’s education or for your own healthcare in the long run
• Have a proper will in place so that your family doesn’t suffer if you get hit by a bus (hopefully never)
• When in doubt, reduce risk. Investing is not a T20 match. You can always bat the next day

I have an engineering background and a very quantitative/rationalistic lens of looking at the world (does not mean I am rational). What I mean is that when I am analyzing a company and valuing it, my  assumption is that all investors will ‘objectively’ look at the numbers and value it in the same fashion.

This approach to investing has its merits and works most of time. However, it has limitations and overweighing it leads to problems.

The above is the performance of a company which by all objective standards has done reasonably well. It has grown topline at 14%, profits at 19% with an ROE of 17% over the last five years. However, the stock is down 70% during this period.

Now you may thinking that this company has some governance issues and there is something seriously wrong with its business model. Let me share the name of the company – Its Repco home finance. This is an old position and you can read the prior analysis here.

We closed the position in Dec 2016 when the company was selling at around 22 times earnings. The main reason for exiting the stock was that I was concerned about the quality of the book (NPA). How did the NPAs turn out?

I hate to say this, but I was right for the wrong reasons. The NPAs have risen in the last few years, but the rise has not been alarming, and it includes some of the worst periods for economy and the financial services Industry. Inspite of that the company closed FY20 with 4% GNPA (which is similar to most private sector banks).

The net NPA for the company is 2.8% which is not high and should improve going forward. So by all objective measures the company has done well but the stock is down 70%. It is selling at around 5 times earnings and 70% of book value.

We  can all debate about what the future holds, but based on the past few years it is unlikely that it will be worse than the last few years. The above is but one example of how narrative often overwhelms the performance of a company.

A rationalist like me would say – Lets wait for some more time and the market will eventually recognize the true worth of the company. But the point is how long should one wait ? 3,5 or 10 years ?  There is an opportunity cost of holding such a position

This kind of scenario has played out with a few of our other positions and has made me question the limits of fundamental analysis. This does not mean that fundamental analysis has no value and should be thrown out of the window. That would be equally foolish.

In order to account for such cases, I have become more sensitive to the narrative around a company and a sector. If the narrative does not change and the stock price does not reflect the fundamentals, then I am more likely to exit a position even if the numbers are fine. We can always re-enter the stock when the market starts changing its view.

Investing in the markets is not an engineering problem which can solved by logic alone. In the past I have failed to account for that to our detriment. The best way to manage this kind of trap is to have a time fuse for each idea. If market does not come around to your view inspite of no change in fundamentals, then one should just exit – No questions asked !