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Financial planning is 80% Psychology

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First a disclaimer: We don’t provide financial planning services, so this is not a sales pitch

I recently met with my extended family and went through a financial planning exercise for some of them. It was a learning experience for all involved

The no.1 element of such exercise is behavioral, or psychology of the individuals involved. An advisor who misses this point and focuses on numbers alone will never be effective. This is like a doctor who prescribes a medicine but does not understand the motivation and fears of the patient. Patient compliance is low in such cases

I focused on the psychology and life situation of each individual and tailored my advice accordingly. I also tried to simplify as much as possible so that it would be easy for them to follow my advice. I used a 3 bucket analogy for savings and investing

Bucket 1: Liquid assets for emergency expenses

Bucket 2: Savings for children’s education (medium term)

Bucket 3: Savings for a long term goal – Retirement

Let me share three case studies and hopefully you can see some value in them even if your personal circumstance may not fit it

  1. Young single mom

A single mom and sole earning member of the family. She is making a reasonable income and is saving a small portion of her income. Most of the savings are in cash or fixed deposits due to lack of knowledge.

I explained the three bucket approach to investing. As she has enough asset in cash/FD, we decided to move some of this capital to broadly diversified mutual funds. The idea was to get started with a small amount initially and then add via SIP over time (to reduce the timing risk)

I took time to re-assure them that her financial situation was fine, and she was doing a good job of saving. She had to focus on creating long term assets to fund her children’s education and her retirement.

  1. Married couple with young children

Typical married middle class couple with home loan and other expenses. They are making reasonable income and saving some portion of it. Most savings are in cash or FD earning low rates of return

I followed the same three bucket approach to investing. The recommendation was the same as the prior case, but as they are making a good salary, we decided to move faster into mutual funds compared to the single mom

Also, they could fund some of their children’s education through regular earnings and could focus on saving for their own retirement. Finally, any bonus or windfall was to be used to pay down debt after ensuring that there was enough in the emergency fund

  1. Married couple with children and volatile income

Very similar to the second case, but the income is very volatile due to business instead of salary income. My template for financial planning was the same as the previous cases but I have asked them to build a 12 month cash reserve.

The surplus capital will move into diversified mutual funds for funding their kid’s education and their own retirement

Some observations from the exercise

The online / Twitter world is completely disconnected from the reality of 90%+ people in the outside world. On Fintwit, a lot of people are jumping around talking of their multi-bagger picks and beating the market

The rest of the world is busy with making a living and saving the best they can. There is a high level of ignorance in terms of financial planning and investment options such as mutual funds. A lot of people are good in terms of savings (though this is reducing), but have no idea on how to invest

As a result, they are invested in low yielding assets. These people also face the risk of mis selling by unscrupulous people. Frustrated with low returns, these people are sold high risk products which does not suit their financial situation or goals.

If like me, you are proficient in financial planning, I think its our moral duty to advise such people – provided they are open to listening. A lot of people will ignore your advice, but a few will listen and that is enough.

If you can help someone secure their financial future, then you have done a big service to them.

Selecting a few mutual funds

I provided a few names to my relatives which I cannot share for obvious regulatory reasons. My criteria for selecting these funds was very simple.

  • Ignore all high risk funds such as Quant, thematic, sector etc. Their returns may be good, but they are not suitable for the people I was advising
  • Select a broadly diversified flexicap fund
  • Short list funds with above average 5 – 10 years of returns
  • Recommend two or three funds. There is no need to go beyond that

The key is to get started and not split hairs on which fund has given the highest return. As I mentioned earlier, the online world is fixated on alpha, whereas in the real world just getting started and making more than an FD will make all the difference

On selling

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There are three ways we can sell or scale out a position

  1. Sell early or in other words sell into strength
  2. Sell late or in other words sell into weakness
  3. Sell at the absolute top

The first two options are known only in hindsight and the third option is a desire of many investors, but should never be the goal of a sensible investor. I know of no system where someone can sell at the top on a consistent basis (consistent being the key word)

All forms of investing and trading try to achieve an above average return on a consistent basis. So lets remove option c and focus on the other two options.

We have to pick our poison – Either sell early and leave some money on the table or sell late and see some of the paper gains evaporate. We use a mix of the two to minimize regret

For example, we sold some of Polycab, Apl apollo etc into strength in 2022 and 2023 and the balance was sold after we hit the peak and the stock started sliding. In these two cases, we sold some early based on position sizing and the rest once we hit the stoploss or due to some issue. In both cases, we achieved a decent return on the total position.

Both the stocks rose after we trimmed the positions in 2022/23 and polycab even doubled from our initial sale. For the portion we held on, we made a decent return but sold below the peak price

In effect, we had regrets after each transaction and that is the key point. No matter, what decision we make, we will have regrets. Sometimes the result of the action will be visible in months and sometimes after years (such as Balaji amines which went up 20X+ after we sold)

We are not trying to achieve perfection in any investment decision. We are trying to do a reasonable job and minimize (not eliminate regret).

This means that our transaction timing will be reasonable but never perfect, though we are making constant effort to improve the quality of these decisions


Disclaimer

  • This report is published by RC Capital Management – SEBI Registered Investment Advisor (INA000004088).
  • This report is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as an Investment Advice.
  • RC Capital Management may have recommended the above stocks to our clients in the past. However, this is not a recommendation to buy / hold / sell the stock at the time of publishing this report.
  • The securities quoted are for illustration purpose only and are not recommendatory
  • RC Capital Management does not hold any position in any of the companies mentioned in the report at the time of publishing the same. Its partners may hold a position in this company in their individual capacity at the time of publishing.
  • Neither RC Capital Management nor its partners have received any compensation from any company mentioned in this report for the preparation of this report.
  • There is no conflict of interest for RC Capital Management / it’s partners due to publishing this report.

Bankruptcy risk analysis

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It was the later part of March 2020 and I was really worried about the tail risks to our portfolio. I started getting worried about Covid in late feb/early march and wrote the following posts on it

Battening down the hatches

Tailrisks

And the key post in the series: Economic sudden stop in which I wrote the following

What is an economic sudden stop – It is when most economics activities for a location come to a sudden stop due to a financial or natural disaster. In most cases such sudden stops are local such as due to a flood or an earthquake.

Global sudden stops are extremely rare and have happened only during the great depression in 1930s and 2008. Even during wars, we do not have such a situation.

The current crises has the potential of an economic sudden stop (and may have started). I have been thinking of this risk (which I have been referred to as a Tail risk). Over the weekend, I drew the following crude picture to illustrate my hypothesis (please excuse my drawing)

In view of this risk, I decided to analyze all my positions for bankruptcy risk. I wanted to assess how long the companies in my portfolio would survive, if there was complete stoppage of business (revenue = 0)

I am attaching the analysis below. Please note all companies in the note are for educational purpose only. Also we don’t hold these stocks now.

Bankruptchy risk analysis

Real estate cycles

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I am sharing an edited note, we published to subscribers recently. A few points to keep in mind as you read this note.

  • I have a terrible track record in forecasting business cycles.
  • I got the real estate cycle wrong the last time when we added to the sector in early 2017.

That said, I am stubbornly persistent. Even if I got it wrong the first time, it does not mean I will not try again.


I wanted to start the update for this quarter with some broad comments for the sector and how it is influencing our decisions for this basket. I am looking at the real estate basket versus individual companies, in the same manner as financial services/banks.

The real estate sector is a longer duration cyclical sector like infra in comparison to the financial sector. The real estate cycle is around 8-10 years from peak to peak versus 2-3 years for financials. Again, this is not an empirically proved number, just an observation.

The Indian real estate sector went through a longer down cycle this time due to some additional events namely Demonetization in 2016, Credit down cycle in 2018 and then covid in 2020. At the same time, demand for real estate is usually steady over the long term. There are sub cycles of extra demand from investors, but over the long run demand is tied to household formation, migration, and replacement of old stock.

We had an overinvestment phase from 2003-2010 which peaked around 2011. Since then, we have had a bear market for 11 years during which the excess inventory was absorbed. I had originally estimated that the cycle would turn in 2017 but got the timing wrong (by only 6 years!)

We are seeing an upcycle now. Keep in mind that this cycle will not be a linear one. We could have intermediate downcycles within this secular uptrend. This trend is now visible across the sector as follows.

  1. All real estate companies are now reporting high double digit pre-sales. This will translate to higher reported sales in the next 2-3 years.
  2. There is a trend towards higher priced housing. Increasing pre-capita income level is driving this trend.
  3. Regulatory and other changes mean that the organized sector is capturing incremental demand. This means industry consolidation, better pricing, and higher ROC in the long run.

My gut feel (Which can be wrong) is that we are in the initial phase of this cycle, and it can continue for 3 years or more. At the same time, there will be periodic corrections as we go along.

Our investment in this sector is based on the above thesis. We are spreading our bets so that we can benefit from the tailwinds without being 100% right at the company level. We may swap positions based on the relative performance of the companies in the sector

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