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Dollar depreciation will stress test the Indian offshore model

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Most of the Indian IT/ ITES companies have good margins and high return on capital. They quote a fairly high PE’s.
If the reports are to be believed, a dollar depreciation is a high probability event. When will it happen and whether it would be rapid or slow and measured is the question. Most of the economist / financial commentators agree that dollar has only one direction to go in the long run and that is down. Now even the asian central bankers who are biggest buyers of US treasury seem to be acting on that.


Estimates show that a +1% appreciation of dollar would cause the margins to drop by 0.5 % ( or more …i don’t have the exact number ).

So hypothetically speaking if the appreciation is 10 % ( a probable outcome ) , then margins could drop by 5 – 10 %. Add to that wage inflation in india and increased competition , the Offshore business would come under severe stress.

This is not to say that the offshore trend will stop or the companies will go bankrupt or something, rather indian companies will have to learn to live with lower margins

This could see some weak companies getting washed out and the current darling could see their high multiples which the stock market gives them, being reduced.

So add a reduction in margins and drop in multiples and that gives you a picture of what could happen to the stock price.

Charlie Munger’s biograhy – 2

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I have completed almost 100 pages of the biography. Several nuggets of wisdom and learnings come through. One thing which strikes is the honesty and fairness with which charlie has always conducted his affairs.

There is an incident in the book. Guerin ( if i have not got his name wrong ) joined charlie as a partner in the munger , wheeler and Co. ( which was an investment partneship modelled after the buffet partnership ). To start with guerin was not too rich when he joined munger in this partnership.
During the course of their dealing , they accquired a chemical company ( as an aside that too is an intersting tale of how they accquired it ). some time later , guerin wanted to cash out his portion of the deal. He valued it as 200000 usd and would have been happy with it. Munger remarked that he was wrong and it was closer to 300000 usd. His remark was to the effect ‘if you think hard about it , you will agree with me because you are smart and i am right’

As you go through the book, you realise that munger has always been fair and honest in all his dealing and has never tried to cut corners. This is admirable because there are enough examples of rich people who have cut corners. But buffet and munger are people who have achieved their success with out cutting corners. To use a quote from the book , which munger uses ‘To avoid envy from other , you should deserve your success’

Charlie munger’s biography

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i have been reading this biography for the last few days. Doing it for the second time. I have always admired charlie munger for his wisdom and the perspective he brings to investing, business and life in general.

i have read and re-read his talks on – mental models : multipdiscplinary approach to investing, his talk on 24 type of human misjudgement and several others. These talks are phenomenal and has opened an entirely new way of thinking for me .

I can say that along with warren buffet, charlie munger has influenced me a lot.

A few learnings from charlie biography for me have been
– act honorably / honestly . Treat people fairly. You never know when you will meet them again
– money is means to an end. It helps you to achieve financial freedom so that you can do what you love. money should not be an end in itself
– be rational. Rationality is more important than IQ
– keep an open mind . Always be inquisite . learning is a life long process
– learn from as many disciplines as possible. As charlie say – To a man with a hammer , every problem is like a nail. Learn the key models , and try to use them to solve problems
– reading should be with a purpose in mind. It should help one in building one’s knowledge

i could go on and on. frankly enjoying myself reading this biography for the second. i am also looking forward to charlie’s new book which is coming out in may.

if anyone is interested in his speeches , let me know. would be glad to share it. not sure if i can post them here .

The rise of LN Mittal – lessons for investors

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LN mittal has been in limelight for quite some. He is now in limelight for being the third richest person in the world. everyone seems to be focussing on his networth. I am more interested in how he got there

i have read about him in the past and read about him in an article in the economic times. His key skill is in identifying bankrupt , beaten down steel plants / companies . He is able to value this company correctly and acquire it at that price ( in may cases the owner or goverment is desperate to offload it ). He then proceeds to turn it around and make it profitable.

By applying this strategy across the globe in various situations, LN mittal has been able to build an empire , cut cost and initiate consolidation in this industry.

The following comes to mind on seeing this happen

– A company in the commodity industry can have a sustainable competetive advantages from two sources – superior management and enduring low cost position ( which is also dependent on a superior management )

– Consolidation in a commodity industry improves the profitability of the top firms as it gives them better pricing power.

– mittal steel it seems also is vertically integrated in ore and coke ( two key raw materials ). So with horizontal consolidation, he is also vertically consolidating. This gives him better pricing power.

– He is expanding into new geography and trying to closer to demand ( China / India etc ). This will give him flexibility in the future to manage demand fluctuations. Other companies across the world are restricted to some geography and so if the demand drops in that region , they are in deep trouble.

What is happening also highlights another point of the importance of a good management for commodity industry. Bad managements in the steel industry have run their companies aground and have been in red for quite some time. Recent demand surge and firm prices have given them a lease of life ( and they are promptly started increasing capacity ). Lets see how they manage the next downturn.

LN mittal’s story has been a live case study for me see how a superior management can make a difference even in a commodity industry ( and that too as bad as steel ). vice versa a commodity industry cannot tolerate bad management ( a franchise company like FMCG can for some time )

That he is an indian is beside the point. The sad part is we are happy that an ‘indian’ has made it !! sad because , he could not have achieved it in india …he had to leave the country to achieve his ambitions. Hopefully in the future we will not force such people to look outside the country and would provide the atmosphere within the country

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