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Evaluating asian paints

E

asian paints has been the no.1 paints company for the last 20+ years. This company has returned almost 24% p.a returns since its IPO. Are these returns sustainable ?

Even if the level of returns may not be , i have always felt the company has strong and sustainable competitive advantages like

– A strong distribution network with lockin at key retail dealers through their color world package
– Strong brands in the paints industry like apcolite, apex, gattu etc
– economies of scale in manufacturing, adverstising distribution due to the high market shares (40 %+ )
– good pricing power as the company has been able to sustain margins inspite of raw material price increases
– good management – evident through the track record of managing low WCAP, low debt, sensible accquisitions and good brands and products

In the medium to long term the company should continue to do well in india. The challenge for the company is to port these strengths to their internation operations. That seems to be happening for the time being

Buffet’s talk at Notre Dame

B
I recently came across the transcript of a talk which buffet gave at Notre dame. A few gems from the talk (paraphrased )
‘You don’t want to buy a dollar bill that’s sitting for 50 cents, and it demands positive
capital, and its going to be a dollar bill ten years from now. You want a dollar bill that’s
going to compound at 12%’
‘A couple of fast tests about how good a business is. First question is “how long does the
management have to think before they decide to raise prices?” You’re looking at
marvelous business when you look in the mirror and say “mirror mirror on the wall, how
much should I charge for Coke this fall?” That’s a great business. When you say, like we
used to in the textile business, when you get down on your knees, you know you call in
all the priests, rabbis, and everyone else, “just another half cent a yard”. Then you get up
and they say “We won’t pay it”. Its just night and day. You KNOW those businesses. I
mean, if you walk into a drugstore, and you say “I’d like a Hershey bar” and the man says
“I don’t’ have any Hershey bars, but I’ve got this unmarked chocolate bar, and its a nickel
cheaper than a Hershey bar” you just go across the street and buy a Hershey bar. THAT is
a good business.’
The ability to raise prices; the ability to differentiate yourself in a REAL way, and a REAL way means you can charge a different price, that makes a great business.
I’d like to talk to you for just a few minutes about what I regard as the most important
thing in investments and also in terms of your career. Because in your career what train
you get on makes a lot of difference. Because frequently, perhaps generally, when people
get out of business school, they don’t give enough thought to exactly what sort of train
they’re going to get on. And it makes a tremendous difference whether you get involved
in a prosperous company; one that’s going to really do well. On balance, you want to go
with a company whose stock is going to be a good investment over the years because
there’s going to be much more opportunity; there’s going to be more money made, you’re
going to (garbled). And if you get involved with some of the businesses I’ve been
involved with like trading stamps
One is a marvelous, absolutely sensational business, the other one is a terrible business. If
you have a choice between going to work for a wonderful business that is not capital
intensive, and one that is capital intensive, I suggest that you look at the one that is not
capital intensive.
I read all kinds of business publications. I read a lot of industry publications. Coming in
today on the plane (garbled). I’ll grab whatever comes in the morning. American Banker
comes every day, so I’ll read that. I’ll read the Wall Street Journal. Obviously. I’ll read
Editor and Publisher, I’ll read Broadcasting, I’ll read Property Casualty Review, I’ll read
Jeffrey Meyer’s Beverage Digest. I’ll read everything. And I own 100 shares of almost
every stock I can think of just so I know I’ll get all the reports. And I carry around
prospectuses and proxy material. Don’t read broker’s reports. You should be very careful
with those.
– In addition buffet goes the economics of various businesses such as coke, gillette, textile and other commodity business
A must read for an investor.

Checking on Britannia industries

C

Started looking at britannia industries. It is selling for around 14 times FY05 earnings. The bottom line seems to be growing in low teens. There is very low debt on the balance sheet. In addition found the following interesting
– 30 % ROE
– almost 100 Rs / per investment – need to figure out what is this investment ( net of debt )
– Very high asset TO ratios.
– good free cash flow
– slight improvement in the margin (which seem adequate for an FMCG company )
– strong brands , extensive distribution network, good history of new products

What i still need to figure out
– The NP growth is almost to the tune of 30 % for the year. How sustainable is it ?
– Competitive scenario – ITC / HLL entry into brakery business, how will it impact britannia
– How will the management handle the free cash flows ? will they continue share buybacks or make some bad accquisitions or investments ( need to figure out these investments)

One the strangest points is that britannia does not have a website. How can a 1000 crore + company not have a website ? So it is diffcult to get their annual report

Business mirage

B

A few years back i became interested in moser baer. This company seemed (on the face of it ) to be doing very well. It was getting into a product (CD) which was growing fast. The margins were great. The return on capital was high. The valuation looked great.

But then digging deeper, there were a few things which troubled

– was the depreciation enough to take care of the rate of obselence of the Fixed assets in the fast changing memory business
– how would the margins behave when 1) growth slowed down 2) the price deflation continued and accelerated ( memory prices have dropped by factor of 10 in the last 3-4 years )
– the business seems to be needing regular equity infusion for growth (maybe not important if the business is in high growth phase )

I was looking at the latest results and inspite of the topline growth the margins seem to be dropping. In addittion CD/DVD are getting cheaper by the month. so there is going to a constant pressure on margins. End of the day, it is a commodity business where the price of the product just keeps dropping. In addition , any new memory would require new captial equipment and hence more capital ( especially if it is a new technology )

So the business looks profitable , but if one looks closely ,the money coming out has a mirage like feel …you can see it , but never touch it

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