Look at any financial website / papers and there is euphoria all around …
Cant figure out a rational reason other than that it is good to excite people, get more hits or sell copies.
what’s the big deal about 7200 !! or any other number .
The market is selling at 14.3 times backward pe . If the economy does fairly ok , and the corporate profits continue to grow at 10-15 % , then some time in the future we could have the sensex touching 8000 and then maybe 8900 …provided there is no major shock to the world economy / indian economy … anyway how does it matter
well if the market was selling at say 20 times pe , then it would matter as i would start selling ..or if it was selling at say 10-11 times pe (like 2003 ) then it would matter …as one can buy some very good companies at good prices …but now we have pockets of overvaluation and to be fair pockets of undervaluation …so it means more work ..
so i guess if the markets shoots to 8000 + soon or drops to 6000 types , then it is action time …otherwise it is back to reading annual reports and better off watching the discovery channel
seems like a lot of noise ..but then what can once expect from the most of the financial media !!
Porter’s discussion of strategy
Read the next chapter of the book – ‘on competiton’ . This chapter talks about strategy. Porter has detailed the difference between operational excellence and strategy.
Operational excellence to put it simplistically is doing the various operationally activities as efficiently as possible. For example , a company like Gujarat ambuja uses sea transport to move raw material and finished good and has thus reduced its transportation cost. This is operational excellence.
Strategy, according to porter is the specific choice of activities which a firm decides to perform to create a distinctive position or enduring low cost position and thus achieve competitive advantage. for example , blue star has chosen to focus on the commercial airconditioning market and has built its value chain accordingly (although they are still trying to tap the home a/c market)
In addition, by choosing specific activities and performing them differently and ensuring a fit between them, a firm is able to derive a distinct position and a competitive advantage. Such a position is difficult to replicate as a competitor can duplicate some or all the activities but may not be able to manage the fit between the activities and the tradeoffs between the activities (like blue star may focus more R&D v/s carrier would have to focus on a dealer network )
This book is good to get a deep understanding of strategy and how it can create a sustainable competitive advantage
Porter’s five forces model and buffet’s concept of moat
Buffet refers to the concept of moat or sustainable competitive advantage as one of the most critical factor in determining the returns for a long term investor (in addition to other criteria)
I have been reading porter’s book ‘on competition’ and trying to get a better understanding of how to evaluate a company’s competitive advantage for a long term investment.
The five forces model is very helpful in understanding the industry structure and kind of long term returns to expect in an industry. What i was able to ‘understand’ this time (have read the topic several times ) is that not all the factors are equally important and for an investor it is critical to asses which factors impact the industry and the company more and would influence the long term returns.
More important for a long term investor is to understand, how the five factors of competition will change and determine the future returns.
I am now trying the above exercise for some industries like FMCG/IT services / Banking etc . A good evaluation and insight into the trends would be far more useful that chasing some price targets or trying to predict the next quarter which in munger’s words would be ‘twaddle’
Checking on britannia industries – further update
After the last post, i started analysing britannia further. Liked the following in the company then
– An ROE of 25 %
– almost zero debt
– growth in upper single digits
– A p/e of around 13
– Cash / investment on balance sheet of around Rs 100 / share
In addition the company has good brands, good marketing and distribution infrastructure and reasonable economies of scale.
However on doing a bit of detailed check , i realised that almost 40-50 % of the NP is other income from investment activities which makes the operating pe of almost 20-22 ( after
So the company no longer looks very cheap. in addition i cant get my hands around how the management proposes to use the cash flows. Its core business needs very little cash. They are doing buybacks …but not much ( share count has come down by some 5 – 10 % ). So the company seems to be piling cash and putting it into various investment.
now the above situation although not worrying , does not excite me into putting my money into the company. Most likely i will watch the company for some more time, before doing something
so i guess its time to move the next company !!!