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Additional Buffett resources

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Over the past few years i have gathered a good amount of material such as speeches, articles etc on investing greats such as warren buffett, charlie munger, graham and others.

i have added a new section on the sidebar which will provide links to these useful resources. I am now in the process of adding to the links and would be updating it on a regular basis.

i would be able to share only those resources for which i have a link and it is not copyrighted. For some stuff like buffett’s letter to partners, which cannot be shared , I would not be able to post any links.

So stay tuned !!

Risk Reward ratio not in favor of investors at 7400 levels

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Read this interview of chetan parikh (he runs the excellent website capitalideasonline ). He is an exceptional investor from the graham – buffett school of investing and among the few investors whose views i respect.

The complete interview is available in moneycontrol website

http://news.moneycontrol.com/backends/News/frontend/news_detail.php?autono=174200

some snippets below

He says, “I would be comfortable with the levels being below 6000, because if the market goes below the 5500-6000 levels, there would be a lot more trading opportunities. But at this point of time in the market, it is difficult to find stocks with a large margin of safety.”
He adds that, a good band of
trading for the market would be between 12-18 times earnings, and on that basis the Sensex should be anywhere between 5000-8400 levels.
Parikh says, “At the 7300 levels, the risk reward is not in favour of investors. This does not mean that the markets cannot go up, because on liquidity the markets can go even upto 8000 levels and past that. But from the risk management point of view, the odds are not in favour of the investors, from a one year perspective.”


He says, “My sense is that the operating margins have peaked, and going forward, operating margins could come under pressure. A whole lot of companies have gone in for capital expenditure, and therefore the return on capital employed will come down. We are also seeing the bottom of the interest rate cycle, so there will be a pressure on margins, on return on net worth and capital employed, in the future.

i would completely with his analysis on the return on capital and other fundamentals. The BSE sensex stocks at an aggregate are returning 20 % + ROE (with the past no.s around 16-18 % at best ). So although the pe are not high , i would kind of wary of putting any more money. on the contrary i have started looking at reducing some of my holdings which seems to be get in the over valued territory.

Investing rules from Jim Rogers

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Read a very good article on Jim Rogers in capitalideasonline.com . He was a partner with gorge soros , i think, and has published quite a few good books like investment biker etc .
The link is given below
http://www.capitalideasonline.com/articles/index.php?id=1554

some excerpts

Rule 1: Do your own work. Don’t be afraid of being a loner.

“I learned early in my career that if you read the annual reports, you’ve done more than 90% of the people on Wall Street. If you read the notes to the annual report, you’ve done more than 95% of the people on Wall Street, and if you actually sit down and do a spread sheet, you’ve done more than 98% of the people on Wall Street.” (emphasis mine)

Rule 2: Good investors need a historical perspective­.

Rule 3: Think conceptually about the world.

Rule 4: Don’t buy stocks at high multiples.

“I don’t buy them because, by the time they reach a high multiple, it’s probably about time for it to come to an end. Wall Street and politicians are the last to catch on to any­thing,” said Jimmy. He doesn’t sell a stock just because it happens to have a high multiple. He either waits for a fundamental change or for an indication that something is about to go wrong.

Rule 5: Be selective in your investing and look for one good idea.

“The most important trick for getting rich on Wall Street is not to lose money. There are many guys,” he said, “who do well for two years and then get creamed. Wait until you have a winner and are sure. In the meantime, keep your money in treasury bills. Professional money managers feel that they have to do something all the time and are the worst at following this advice.

“Even if you only have one play every ten years, you’re going to do a lot better than most people.”

Rule 6: Every investment should be considered a commodity that will be affected by supply and demand changes. It’s just a question of when.

Everything has its own supply and demand cycle, which may be a twenty-, thirty-, or fifty-year cycle, and every­thing is basically a commodity in the end. American Stan­dard was a great growth stock when people went from outdoor to indoor plumbing, but it isn’t considered one today. Avon, a cosmetics firm, boomed after the war when the country became more affluent. By the late Sixties, Avon had a multiple of 50, and the market was saturated with many competing cosmetics brands.

Rule 7: Every investor should lose some money, because it teaches you about yourself

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