Read this article on how VOIP is impacting the telecom companies (or could impact). The article focuses on the number of users switching to VOIP and that the traditional companies could see a fall of upto 25 % revenue in the next few years.
I think VOIP could be the disruptive technology often referred to by Clayton M. Christensen in his book ‘the innovator’s dilemma’ . This technology although just below the required performance levels of the regular telecom market is fast improving and moving into the rapid adoption phase. Now with microsoft, skype and google behind it , it should not be long before more rapid adoption happens.
all of the above should be great for the consumer, but what will happen to the telecom industry …i would guess that their entire business model could get disrupted in the next few years …what does this mean for companies like VSNL, bharti or reliance infocomm ?
some of them could face pain but would evolve with the new technology like reliance or bharti ..but i would not be too optimisitic for VSNL, MTNL and some others
i would be wary of investing in the telecom sector for a long term basis
Kothari products ltd – A Net cash graham situation
I was running my screen in the year 2003 and came across kothari products. This was a company with 240 crs cash and equivalent (net of debt) on the balance sheet with a market cap of 80 crs ( i think they had 40 mn outstanding shares @ 170 rs / share). They currently have almost 300 crs (around 600 rs per share )
They were fairly profitable (although the profits were down). The market had beaten down the price due to legislation issues (The maharashtra government had banned Pan masala / gutka – their main products). The company was still profitable, although the profits had come down due to drop in sales. Its free cash flow is same as its net profit because Gutka and other tobacco products require little capex for plant and machinery or working capital. The main asset is the brand (in this case pan parag ). So their profits were pure cash for the owners
I bought the share at an price of Rs 160 – 170 a share and sold around 260 per share. The reason I sold was lack of information from the company ( their website is poorly updated in terms of financial results). In addition, I was not sure what the promoters were planning to do with the cash ( the promoters hold almost 70 % of the company).
So what’s the point of the whole thing …Its not that it was a profitable investment. Rather, although I made money on the whole thing, I did not have a very comfortable feeling with the investment. If I compare it with the other purchases I have done such as asian paints, or a concor which are good businesses with good management, this one made me uncomfortable as there was no transparency from the company. In the end I decided to get out rather than face an unpleasant surprise from the management.
My investment philosophy is closer to that of buffet where I end up buying good to great companies at fair prices and get a good night’s sleep. The above was an experiment in a graham style investment. It was profitable and based on a sound approach. But somehow requires more diversification and purchase in not so great enterprises.
Do you have a similar experience? please feel free to share with me
A great talk on value investing from Prof. Bakshi
I visit prof. bakshi’s blog regularly. He just posted a talk he gave on valueinvesting at the oxford bookstore in 2002. Great presenation with examples which have done well in the last 3 years. One can learn a lot on valueinvesting (and more in an indian context) from him and his posts.
Watchout investors !!
A new website from SEBI and ministry of company affairs which lists any non complaince or any voilation of guidelines or rules by people associated with any public listed companies. Great step towards transparency and investor eductation !!
watchoutinvestors.com is a national web-based registry covering entities including companies and intermediaries and, wherever available the persons associated with such entities, who have been indicted for an economic default and/or for non-compliance of laws/guidelines and/or who are no longer in the specified activity. This information which is presently disorganized, difficult-to-use and is spread across a large number of sources i.e. websites, databases, publications, notifications and orders of the government and of other organizations, agencies, courts of law, tribunals and commissions, has been aggregated, indexed, standardised ,reformatted and re-presented in a form and manner that can be accessed in a user friendly manner.