Read this new article on the global car industry on the economist. My take in terms of impact on the indian industry
– The weaking of the global companies like GM, Ford and their suppliers like Delphi etc would be a great positive for the indian auto parts industry as these companies would have to look at further cutting costs to survive. Indian auto part companies are very cost competitive and are rapidly moving up the value chain
– Critical factor for indian auto parts companies would be how rapidly they can scale up and meet the global quality and service standards ( provided they get some support on infrastrucutre ). Also they can avoid cost pressures if they develop the required technology and IP.
– Not been able to come to conclusion on it would impact the domestic car industry…will it be beneficial for maruti, Tata motors etc ??
Is the market overvalued ?
I have been reading a lot of analysis on the market valuation levels. A few articles are citing that at a PE of 14 – 15 the market is not too overvalued and should give good returns.
On the other hand , some statistics show that market is fairly or overvalued as the ROE for the indian industry is at its peak, Interest rates low, inflation low and the demand robust. As a result we are seeing these PE levels which are at the peak of a cycle and the normalised PE should be close to 17-18.
I find both arguments plausible, but my money is on the overvaluation side. I have become fairly cautious for some time and would be looking at initiating selling if the markets keep rising.
Also the overall market valuations are important if one is invested in index funds or ETF’s. Otherwise rather than concentrating on the market, i am looking at my individual holdings and would start reducing them if they start getting more overvalued (i think some are fairly close to their overvaluation levels)
Although i am not invested in commodity companies, i would look at their valuation levels more closely and would even look at selling them as my thought process is that commodity cycle is at a peak and industry profits are at a cyclical peak (for steel, cement etc ) due to robust demand, high capacity utilisation, low debt and interest level. PE for these companies is very low and i would not base my evaluation on those PE as the earnings are at a cyclical peak. In addition a lot of capacity addition is starting now, for ex: Tata steel seems to have announced a huge capex plan. So i would be wary of putting any money or holding onto commodity companies
Any thoughts ? please share with me
A New Blog
I have added a new blog by Prof Sanjay bakshi . Should be interesting to read his comments / articles and analysis
Business model of Ratings agency – Crisil
I am looking at the financial numbers of crisil. My thinking was that CRISIL and any other rating agency would have a good business model. On looking at the numbers i have been completely blown away.
– Return on networth – 20 % +
– Return on capital employed in business – 80 % (approximate ). The company has about Rs100/share of investment
– Net profit is almost equal to cash flow as a rating agency would not have too much fixed expenses (other than offices which can be bought or leased)
– Not much of working capital requirement (close to zero)
– Net margins of 20% +
– Strong competitive advantage in the form of a strong brand name ( CRISIL or ICRA etc ). Any company wanting to get rated will have to go to these companies …sometimes to all of them ( and i cant think of new companies being able to get into this business easily)
– additional lines of business through these relationships with companies like advisory services, research services etc which provides additional revenue streams.
So if everything is so good , why not buy the stock …?? looked at the price and ofcourse the market is smart enough to recognise a good business. The stock sells at a PE of around 35. So it seems to be a great business available at not a great price. I will give it a pass ..but will continue studying the business model