I have a single consolidated spreadsheet for analyzing industries on various parameters such as Porter’s five forces model, demand factors, supply factors affecting the industry, competitive factors for the industry etc.
I have developed this excel for my personal use to record my observations, learnings from various sources such as articles, industry reports etc. This excel is still work in progress. I am posting this excel (in its semi-complete state) on the Blog. Please feel free to download it and have a look at it.
I would really appreciate if anyone can point errors, or add to the spreadsheet. It should help my and others understanding of various industries and hopefully make us better investors
I am posting the excel under the ‘quantitative analysis’ section.
Investment advise paradox
Found this good article (below) on wallstraits.com. I have wondered several times the same point – ‘if the stock tips are so good and reliable’ then why are they being given out for free or for a fee. Put it another way, all these experts on the TV channels and websites who claim to know where the market is going ..why are they letting others onto it or selling this advice for a fee. Can these ‘experts’ not getting rich by following their own advise? Replace the work expert with broker and this paradox is even more jarring !
It is ironic that two approaches to stock market investing that would be widely accepted in the prosperous second half of the twentieth century—Graham and Dodd’s “value” investing and T. Rowe Price’s “growth” investing—were spawned within a few years of each other during the depressed 1930s. Neither Graham and Dodd nor Price anticipated the long boom that would finally get under way in the 1940s. But the analytical approaches they developed, even though profoundly colored by the searing experience of the Great Depression, proved to be very durable, providing systematic methodologies for investing that would be successfully employed under very different conditions in the future.
At the same time Benjamin Graham and David Dodd were writing Security Analysis (1934), another student of the market, Alfred Cowles, was collecting data in an effort to answer a basic question that intrigued him. Seeking sound investment advice, Cowles had become confused by the bewildering array of investment newsletters published in the 1920s. He finally decided in 1928 to conduct a test in which he would monitor 24 of the most widely circulated publications to determine which was actually the best. The results of his efforts proved quite disappointing; none of the services correctly anticipated the 1929 crash or the subsequent bear market, and most of the advice offered proved to be quite poor.
It was then Cowles asked the question that he would spend years attempting to answer: Can anyone really consistently predict stock prices? Using his inherited wealth to fund research on the subject, Cowles assembled a great deal of data and eventually reached a tentative answer to his question. Summed up in three words, the answer was “It is doubtful.”
Cowles found that only slightly more than a third of the investment newsletters he monitored had performed well and that he could not prove definitely that the results of even the best of them were attributable to anything other than luck. He also took on the proponents of the Dow theory, exhaustively examining the predictions of William Hamilton, the Wall Street Journal editor who succeeded Charles Dow. For more than 25 years, Hamilton had been publishing market prognostications based on Dow’s ideas. Hamilton died in 1929, shortly after issuing, only days before the crash, his most famous prediction: that the bull market of the 1920s had come to an end. He received a great deal of posthumous credit for his timely market call from observers who forgot that he had made similar calls in 1927 and, twice, in 1928. Cowles did not overlook the previous faux pas; his analysis concluded that although a Hamilton portfolio would have grown by a factor of 19 during Hamilton’s years as editor of the Journal (1903-1929), an investor who simply bought into the market and held his stocks over that same period would have done twice as well.
Cowles, although not a trained academic expert, compiled an impressive array of information that would be used decades later by scholars seeking to examine the same questions that had interested him. (Much of the data used in this book to compute price-earnings ratios and dividend rates for the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries comes from Cowles’s work.) Cowles founded the Cowles Center for Economic Research in Colorado Springs; the facility was moved to the University of Chicago in 1939 and would over time support the work of many Nobel Prize-winning economists. But in the 1930s, Cowles’s insights were understandably unpopular with professional investment advisors, most of whom preferred to ignore his conclusions.
What must have been most galling was a simple point Cowles often made that was never answered effectively by the investment advice practitioners. As Cowles put it, “Market advice for a fee is a paradox. Anybody who really knew just wouldn’t share his knowledge. Why should he? In five years, he could be the richest man in the world. Why pass the word on?”
In spite of the conclusions he reached, Cowles never doubted that investors would keep buying newsletters. As he put it, “Even if I did my negative surveys every five years, or others continued them when I’m gone, it wouldn’t matter. People are still going to subscribe to these services. They want to believe that somebody really knows. A world in which nobody really knows can be frightening.”
Sage@wallstraits.com
Credits: This article is primarily extracted from B Mark Smith’s market history book, Toward Rational Exuberance, 2001.
Buffett, Gates visit UNL
Article on the gates / Buffett visit to University of nebraska. Some excerpts below
By Dick Piersol
Microsoft chairman Bill Gates, left, and billionaire investor Warren Buffett participate in a question and answer session with students at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln’s College of Business Administration, Friday, Sept. 30, 2005. (AP)
Lincoln Journal StarAs recollections of Tommy Lee’s visit fade like a cheap tattoo, the University of Nebraska-Lincoln refreshed its celebrity appeal on Friday with an appearance by the goalposts of capitalism.The world’s two richest beings — Microsoft chairman and chief software architect Bill Gates, a Harvard dropout, and his bridge-playing buddy Warren Buffett, the investment industry’s biggest rocker, chairman of Berkshire Hathaway and a UNL grad — communed with business students at the Lied Center.
In a two-hour question-and-answer session to be televised next year by NET, the Nebraska public television network, the wealthiest of America’s good ole boys answered unscripted questions in a relaxed setting for an audience of about 1,800, mostly students from the UNL College of Business Administration.The university warmed up and amused the audience with filmed introductions: TV’s Judge Judy adjudicated a disputed $2 bet between the two moguls she described as “elderly delinquents.” California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger ran Buffett through enforced calisthenics. And entertainer Jimmy Buffett performed a vocal duet of “Ain’t She Sweet,” with the richer Buffett on ukulele.Then the featured guests got down to business, starting with ethics in business during challenging times, how they enforce their own sense of integrity in their organizations and ranging beyond to a variety of topics.Buffett said he sends a letter every couple of years to 40 or so Berkshire company managers to let them know they can afford to lose money but not their reputation.“I ask them how they would feel about any given action if it were to be written up in the local newspaper by a smart but pretty unfriendly reporter,” Buffett said.Nobody in the friendly audience asked about Berkshire’s latest brushes with the law, for example, the Securities and Exchange Commission’s September notice to Berkshire that the SEC is considering civil charges against Joseph Brandon, chief executive of Berkshire’s General Re, for potential violations of securities law.Questions ranged then to public policy, specifically the income tax, and whether it ought to be flattened.
One student asked what field of work the two might have chosen if they were 20 years old again.Gates answered medical science and biology. The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has devoted billions of dollars to solving health problems in developing nations.Buffett chose journalism, and said in a sense, he is a reporter.“I assign myself a story, what is this company worth and why?” he said. Buffett owns a big piece of the Washington Post and told the audience his parents met at the university when his father was editor of the Daily Nebraskan. His mother was the daughter of an editor.
Indian Corporates going global
The list of Indian companies going global is expanding rapidly. I am not referring to the IT services /BPO companies which had a global model to start with. I am referring to companies like asian paints, Tata motors, Auto component industries, Pharma companies like Ranbaxy and banks like ICICI etc.
Clearly the factors for success in the global market would be different from those in India (more in some industries than other). It is difficult to come up with some unifying logic on the factors as each company, its market and strategy is different.
A company like asian paints is expanding in countries like Singapore, Thailand etc but avoiding the developed markets. It is leveraging its capabilities in distribution, channel management, sourcing but not extending its brands. On the other hand ICICI targeting the developed countries, but specifically Indians. It is leveraging its brands, technology etc to expand in these markets.
The common thread I have been able to see among these early globalisers is that these are successful Indian companies who are leveraging their existing capabilities into these global markets. However these companies appear to be defining their strategy clearly by identifying a niche in the global markets and attacking that niche with the distinct capabilities they already have.
For example, Ranbaxy has used its reverse engineering skills and low cost production base to attack the generics market (although some of these pharma companies are getting into drug discovery too).
Auto component companies are using the low cost and engineering talent to become the sole / preferred suppliers for Global auto companies. Another interesting point I noted was that most of Auto component companies have their own niches within the product groups.
I personally think understanding and evaluating the strategy of these companies for these Global markets would be very critical to come up with a proper valuation and a buy/ pass decision.
Any hasty / overly optimistic assumption would mean that one would end up paying for the likely growth potential with no margin of safety if the market also believes in the same thing