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Looking at exide industries

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I came across a few research reports on exide industries and liked what I saw . In a nutshell

  • Exide industries is in the business of  Automotive batteries with brands such as Exide and Standard furukawa.
  • Exide supplies to OEM customers in cars ( Maruti, Hyundai, Ford etc), 2 wheelers ( Bajaj, Honda etc ) and has now made an considerable in roads in the tractor segment too. It has a very high market share of around 80%+ in the OEM segment
  • Exide has a dominant position in the replacement market ( 60%+) market share and a strong brand and extensive distribution network ( Read  competitive advantage )
  • Exide has a strong balance sheet with ROE in high teens and consistent topline and bottomline growth inspite of increases in lead prices ( lead account for around 65 % of Raw material costs )
  • Exide seems to have a reasonable pricing power due to its strong brand and is a preferred vendor for a number of OEM customers
  • The company is now expanding into the export market ( which accounts for only 5 % of the topline currently )
  • The next few years look good for the company as the Automotive sector ( cars, CV and 2 wheelers) has seen good growth and as the replacement cycle is around 18-24 months, strong demand from the both the OEM segment and replacement segment  should kick in.


A few negatives

  • Lead pricing would have an important bearing on the margins going forward. However over the next 2-3 years the impact of higher lead prices could be reduced if Exide is able to pass through the cost increases.
  • Valuation – The company is priced at around 15 times FY06 earnings. For me it is on the higher end of the price range. If I am able to get more comfortable and confident of the  business (need to read about other companies in this industry), then 15 times FY06 earnings may have a margin of safety. But for the time being, I am still evaluating and trying to get my arms around it.

A good article on brands in fortune

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For those interested in the discussion on brands and how strong, and powerful brands add value to a business, there is an article in fortune which discusses the top ten brands across the globe.

How to Build a Breakaway BrandHow ten companies, making products from drills to waffles, took good brands and made them much, much better.By Al Ehrbar
What do Gerber, Google, and Eggo have in common? They’re all selling familiarity, trust, and quality—those intangible traits summed up by the word “brand.” Right now that word is more important than ever before, because competitors are more instantly reactive and consumers more sophisticated than ever before. The Model T Ford was in production for 18 long years with little change; Sony’s Cyber-shot digital cameras go out of production while the packaging is still crisp. And once upon a time shoppers pretty much believed the hype; these days Internet-powered bargain hunters are armed with accurate pricing and product information—and brutal in their search for value.
In this cutthroat marketplace, which brands have been most successful? To find out, FORTUNE turned to Landor Associates, a brand and design consultant in San Francisco. Landor mined a huge database of brand perceptions called the BrandAsset Valuator, or BAV, to identify ten products that scored the largest increases in brand strength from 2001 to 2004. (Landor is part of WPP Group’s Young & Rubicam division, which owns the BAV.) Landor’s partner, the New York consultancy BrandEconomics, then calculated the pop in economic value each of these breakaway brands gave their parent companies.
Here’s how it works. First, Landor and BrandEconomics asked consumers—9,000 of them—what they thought of 2,500 U.S. brands. Then they looked at brand strength. This is a combination of two properties: differentiation and relevance. Differentiation is the degree to which a brand stands out. Relevance is the degree to which consumers believe a brand meets their needs. That all sounds rather obvious, but what’s surprising is that the two factors don’t necessarily go together. Rolls-Royce has stellar differentiation but hardly any relevance, since few people can pay $300,000 for four wheels. Kleenex is highly relevant but undifferentiated: Most tissues feel alike. The brands that do best are those that deliver on both counts.
In addition, the BAV measures a brand’s stature, which can also be broken down into two components—esteem and knowledge. Esteem is how well regarded the brand is, while knowledge refers to whether the consumer understands it. And once again, those two qualities don’t operate in lockstep. A high-esteem, low-knowledge profile may be a sign of a brand on the rise—the consumer’s curiosity is piqued. A high-knowledge, low-esteem profile, on the other hand, is the consumer’s way of dissing a brand: We know it, and it’s nothing special (think Dodge or Coor’s Lite).
Weakening brands tend to depend more on coupons and discounts; muscular ones can command a premium. How much does that matter? A lot. The intangible value of a company is its market value minus its tangible capital (i.e., property, plant, equipment, and net working capital). A BrandEconomics analysis found that companies with strong, well-regarded brands had an intangible value of 250% of annual sales; companies with listless brands had one of only 70%.
In important ways, though, the value of a brand is incalculable. A rising brand secures more customer loyalty, higher margins, greater pricing flexibility, and new opportunities for growth. And brands on the way up, BrandEconomics research shows, ride through economic downturns with less trauma. “The combination of faster growth with less risk,” says Hayes Roth, vice president for global marketing at Landor, “is business nirvana.” Here’s a look at ten brands that are pretty close to paradise right now.

It is easy to know what will happen in the market, but difficult to know when

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The above comment is from warren buffet. He has also written in the annual letters that he prices the market, rather than time the market. The difference is substantial between the two approaches. The first one, is based on valuation and understanding when the market price is way above the intrinsic value and then going ahead and selling the overvalued security.

The second approach of timing the market is based on psychology of the market and is very difficult (at least for me) to do consistently. People try technical analysis, charts etc to time the market and there could some investors out there who could be good at it. But I have never tried it, as it is too difficult and not really productive for me.

The approach in ‘pricing’ the market works in areas beyond the stock market too. Let me give a personal example

Interest rates in India have fallen for quite some time. From a 10% in 2001 to around 6-7 % by 2004. This was the time to be an investor in debt as debt funds gave good returns. In 2004 I was looking at a housing loan and had an offer of 7.75 % fixed versus 7.25 % Variable. The loan officer ofcourse was very enthusiastic about the variable loan and kept pushing it. I however was keen on the fixed loan and had worked the following math (with assumptions)

Long-term inflation – 5-6 % (assumption on the lower end, can be higher)
NPA – 0.5-1 %
Cost of loan servicing for an HFC – 0.25 – 0.5 %
Return on asset – 1.5 % (for an HFC to earn a reasonable return on equity)

The effective cost (rate an HFC should charge me) should be around 7.5 % – 9 %. So with all the optimistic assumptions built into the ‘value’ of the funds, it should not be priced below 7.5%.

As the bank was offering 7.75 % fixed for a tenure of 20 years, I felt the loan was underpriced and opted for a fixed rate loan.

I could be wrong in my decision if

  • Inflation for next 20 years remains below 5 %
  • NPA for most of the HFC are below 0.5 %


But the odds are that over a 20-year period, we could have periods of high inflation and high NPA. So I went ahead with the fixed rate loan. At the same time I moved out of debt funds and into floating rate funds.

I found the approach of pricing (and working on odds) the market much more productive. I am not right immediately and so there is no instant gratification (all my friends in 2004 kept saying that floating rate is the way to go). But if my logic is correct and I make a rational, informed decision, it has worked out for me.

Please share any such experiences you would have had




Pidilite industries – results and a change of opinion

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Pidilite industries is one of the leading companies involved in adhesives, sealants and construction chemicals business. It has several top brands like fevicol, Fixit, M-seal etc.

I had looked at this company in 2001 and had made a small investment based on the following points

  • Good ROC of 20 % +
  • Sustaniable competitive advantage due to strong brands, extensive distribution network and high market share/ mindshare
  • Consistent revenue and profit growth for last 10 years

What stopped me from committing myself more was the tendency of the management to do strange, under-related commitment of capital to businesses like windmills !. In addition they had some IT disputes. All this made me uncomfortable.

A few weeks back I looked at their latest annual report and liked what I saw. A few notable point

  • Capital allocation has been rational and has added to the core business. Management has acquired brands like Mr Fixit, M-seal etc and have grown these brands after acquiring them
  • No funny diversifications into stuff like windmills !!
  • An increasing dividend flow indicating a willingness to return excess capital back to shareholders
  • Focus on EVA / Return on capital ( The management discussion talks about these points which kind of indicates the managements commitment to it)
  • Impressive growth in the core business of adhesives, sealants, construction chemicals
  • Growth of the business to international markets

All in all, I am ready to re-think on the capital allocation attitude of management, which I feel is fairly pro-shareholder and rational. But the price is a bit higher than what I would like. So I guess, I would wait and watch for the price to be in happy zone before I take a swing

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