Is it that software stocks are undervalued relative to the market? Will they outperform going forward? In our view, the risk-return matrix of investing in software stocks currently is equally poised.
On a relative basis, assuming a 15% CAGR growth in earnings of the BSE Sensex companies, the benchmark index is trading at a price to earnings multiple of around 14 times FY08 earnings. As compared to the same, the top five software majors, on an average, are trading at 19 times our estimated FY08 earnings. This is a 28% premium to the benchmark index. Considering the fact that earnings growth of the top three software companies i.e. Infosys, Wipro and TCS is likely to around 25% CAGR in the next three years (66% higher than Sensex earnings growth), we believe that the premium is justified
From: BSE IT: Has it tracked fundamentals
Question: Company A has a PE of 10, expected growth of 10 % for next 10 years and a ROE of 5 %. Company B has a PE of 15, expected growth of 8 % for the same period and an ROE of 20 %. Which company is cheap?
IT companies have a return on capital which is far in excess of 25%. However the key point in justifying the current valuations would be whether this level of growth and ROE hold? and that is where issues such as competivitive advantage of the indian IT service companies, their ability to contain costs, rupee – dollar rates etc comes in. So basically the answer to the question posed in the above article is not as obvious as the writer is suggesting (at least to me)
I typically avoid reading broker reports and their recommendations. The analysis is typically very shallow, incomplete
and hardly covers any of the key aspects in valuing the company. And worse is the tendency to compare apples and oranges, which in this case is to compare BSE sensex (which includes banks, commodity companies etc ) with an IT services company.
Answer to my question: Company A is a value destroyer and would need capital to grow at 10 % for next 10 years. So I would not pay more than 4-5 PE for the company.
Learning Arbitrage
I have a conceptual understanding of arbitrage and have started looking at it actively. The first time I looked at it seriously was before the reliance de-merger. However I was not too confident of the opportunity and as a result did not commit much capital to it.
I just came across these two posts by prof. Bakshi which talks of two such arbitrage opportunities
http://fundooprofessor.blogspot.com/2006/04/nothing-ventured-something-gained.html
http://fundooprofessor.blogspot.com/2006/04/creating-free-warrants-case-of-jsw.html
I think Prof bakshi has explained the two situations in a fair amount of detail and anyone wanting to learn about arbitrage opportunities should read these two posts.
I am looking for some books on arbitrage and till date have found a bit of an explaination on it in warren buffett’s letters to shareholders and in Benjamin graham’s books – ‘The intelligent investor’ and ‘Security analysis’. However I am still looking for some books which covers this topic in detail, especially risk arbitrage, M&A arbitrage etc.
If anyone of you know a good book on it please leave me a comment. I would really appreciate it.
Notes from Columbia Business School trip’s meeting with Warren buffett
I always make it a point to read the transcripts/ notes of these meetings. A lot of it is the same stuff, but I am always able to find a few gems of wisdom in buffett’s replies to the Q&A. Some of the interesting comments are below
Link : http://investoblog.blogspot.com/
Question 3: What do you read?Everything. Annual reports, 10-K’s, 10-Q’s, biographies, history. When he’s in airplanes, he’ll read the instructions on the seat backs. Two books he recommended specifically are Poor Charlie’s Almanack and Personal History, Kate Graham’s bio. He rarely ever reads fiction, feels like it would be taking up time he could be reading about business. He reads five newspapers a day, and plays bridge twelve hours a week.
Question 4: Please share your thoughts on your position in Remy International and the auto parts industry in general.“Boy, I thought airlines were tough.” They took the position in Remy three years ago.When your big customers are teetering on the brink of bankruptcy, it’s tough to get price increases. You can’t survive as a high-cost producer in this industry. You can’t pass through costs like you could in the old times.
Question 5: What investment lessons have you learned?He keeps making mistakes. Predicting the future is hard, and it will keep being hard. As long as his mistakes are in his analysis, that’s okay. When you buy a stock, you need to be able to get out a yellow legal pad and write down, in one page why it is cheap. For example, “I am buying the Coca Cola company for $14b for x, y, and z reasons and I think it is worth far, far more than that.”
He finds the game fun and always has. If you like it, keep practicing. It’s hugely important to buy stocks on your own. By doing that, you learn in a way that you can’t from reading books. Temperament and emotions are hugely important, and you need to experience that first-hand.
Common errors in DCF models
Found this great article from Michael Mauboussin, Chief Investment Strategist of Legg Mason Capital Management (LMCM). It is a 12 page article on the common errors investors commit in using the DCF (Discounted cash flow) model.
Personally my approach to valuation (which is not original and mainly developed from reading) is to create a DCF model for three scenarios. I extend the current business condition and create an as-is scenario. So the assumption is that the current growth rates, margins, competitive situation etc will continue as is. The second scenario is an optimistic scenario where in I try to calculate the intrinsic value using the most optimisitic assumptions for growth rates, margins, competitive intensity etc. The third scenario is the pessimistic scenario with poor growth rates, high competitive intensity etc.
I try to associate probability against each scenario and try to calculate the expected value.
So expected value is = intrinsic value (as is) * probability for ‘as is’ + instrinsic value (optimistic scenario)* probability for optimisitic scenario + intrinsic value (pesimistic scenario) * probability for pessimistic scenario.
I also cross check the above expected value with ratio based valuations.
The above approach forces me to think harder on all my assumptions. Also when the annual results are declared for any company I have invested in, I go back to my excel spreadsheet and relook at the numbers, assumptions etc and calculate the new intrinsic value again. This gives me an idea on whether I should sell, buy more or hold.
I am not able to post my valuation / analysis spreadsheet on the blog. If any one is interested, please e-mail me on rohitc99@indiatimes.com