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A new Era

A

I have been noticing in the past few weeks that interest rates have started hardening. I do not have the exact figures, but it seems that the rates for housing loans have started approaching double digits now.

I wrote a post on interest rates a year back (see here). Back in 2003-2004 the rates were at an all time low (as low as 7.5% fixed and 7.25 % variable). However everyone looking at the immediate past, were prediciting further drops (what else would explain almost everyone’s preference for variable rate loans?). I almost got into an argument with the loan officer in getting a fixed rate loan (the loan officer kept telling me that I was making a big mistake).

My logic in working out a rough pricing level for loans was detailed here. General extremes in valuations, whether stock or interest rates are easier to spot (although I cannot predict them). However I do not know if the rates are high now, will rise or fall in the future. What I feel strongly is that any rate lower than 8% is good and should be locked in via a fixed rate loan.

There are a few new conventional ideas now prevalent such as

– real estate is great investment at any price and will rise 20-30 % per annum due to the extreme shortage of real estate in india (for better idea of real estate bubbles, read about the 90’s real estate bubble in japan)
– Indian economy has entered a new era and stocks are worth more now. Every drop in the market as a result presents a new opportunity to buy

I don’t claim that I know any better on the above two new convential ideas in vogue currently. I am however unwilling to pay for the bright and shiny new future in these investment classes (stocks and real estate)

Fortune’s formulae – II

F

I just finished reading the book. In addition to my previous post on the topic (see here), I found the following important points and learnings

– Size your bet/ stock position based on the edge or odds. Although I don’t have a scientific formulae behind it, my typical approach is to put 2-5 % of my portfolio in a stock where the odds are 3:1 or less. For cases where the risk is low and I have a very high level of confidence, my typical wieghtage is around 10%. I however rarely exceed 10% in a single stock. I however do not resort to portfolio rebalancing and allow my winners to run.
– Geometric return is more important than arithmetic return. Geometric returns are the compound returns from an investment whereas arithmetic returns are the average of the annual returns.
– Fat tails in the distribution of returns can cause large fluctuations in the portfolio value. As a result managing risk through optimal portfolio sizing and diversification is important (personal thought: buying real estate in 5 different cities is not diversification. More important diverisification criteria is to spread money across asset classes)

Fortune’s formula

F

I have been reading this book : Fortune’s Formula: The Untold Story of the Scientific Betting System That Beat the Casinos and Wall Street.

I have found this book quite good especially if one wants to learn about odds, betting etc.

I am just halfway through the book. The book discusses about the kelly’s formula.

F = edge/odds. I have written about this formulae earlier (see here).

I found the above formula intersting although I have yet to figure out, how to use it directly in investment management. The formulae works well for betting situations like blackjack, horse betting which have limited outcomes. Its diffcult to work out mathematically the value of edge and odds in a common stock situation.

I have also been doing some analysis on the NSE data and have the following data

The above is the distribution of PE ratio for the last 7 years. It clearly shows that the only for around 8% of the trading days has the PE ratio been higher than 22.

If we take the above numbers as proxy for probability of occurrence and multiply that with the gain/ loss ( current PE – PE of the particular day / current PE) for each day, the expected value is around –19%.

To cut a long story short, the market seems to be overvalued by historical measures (which may not mean that the market is overvalued if the future performance is better than expected). Overall, I am planning to be more cautious especially in investing in the index (via index funds or ETF)

update : 8-Jan : Found this interesting discussion thread on the Berkshire board on MSN on the same topic. For those interested in kelly formulae, i would recommend reading the thread

http://groups.msn.com/BerkshireHathawayShareholders/general.msnw?action=get_message&mview=0&ID_Message=26958&LastModified=4675605385636001835

Classification of companies based on nature of competition

C

I was reading a book on economics and found the following basic types of competition

– Perfect monopoly
– Oligopoly or duopoly
– Monopolisitic competition
– Perfect competition

I find the above types instructive and a good way to analyse the long term economics of an industry. Let me define the specifics of each type and add a few more subtypes under each

Perfect monoply – As the name suggest, there is just one firm and can charge any price it wants. Obviously this is more in theory than practise, although we have had several monopolies in india till date. Overall monoplies are very profitable (if private) for the investor and bad for the consumer. Several examples come to mind – BSNL, MTNL, Indian airlines (in the past) and now Indian railways. These were (or could have been) extremely profitable (excluding railways) even after all the mismanagement and waste. In a nutshell a perfect monopoly or a close one is extremely profitable for an investor. I would also define a company a monopoly if it has a huge market share in its specific segment and can hold on to it due to some competitive advantage.

Oligopoly or duopoly – A limited number or just two firms in the market. Although not as profitable as a monopoly, I would say these companies are quite profitable and extremely good investments for the long run. Several companies come to mind in this group. For ex : Crisil and other rating agencies, asian paints and other paint companies. One specific point worth noting is that the barrier to entry in this industry are high and hence new entrants cannot enter easily into the industry. As a result the incumbents can earn good profits.

Monopolistic competition – A large number of companies with limited profitability. Barriers to entry are not too high and as a result new companies can enter the industry more easily. I would say most of the commodity companies fall under this group. For ex: cement, steel, Auto, Telecom etc. Few companies in this kind of industry enjoy high profits and generally the lowest cost provider has some kind of competitive advantage. As an investor I would look at companies which have some kind of low cost advantage, some other local or national competitive advantage and a good management. Bad management in such an industry can kill the company.

Perfect competition – A ideal or theorotical construct more than a practical scenario. In such an industry there is no competitive advantage at all, all companies are price takers and they earn only the cost of capital. I would say very few industries would fall in this group. Brokerage firms come close to perfect competition, but still this is more theory than reality.

The way to classify an industry in anyone of the above groups is to look at the following variables
– no of companies in the industry controlling 60-70% of the sales in the industry
– Avg profitability of the companies
– Relative Market share changes between companies over a period of time

By doing the above analysis, one can figure out the level of competition and as a result have a rough idea of the long term economics of the industry.

The above analysis is just a rough guideline or a starting point of a more detailed analysis of the industry and individual companies. However by doing the above assesment, I am able to understand the intensity of competition in an industry over a period of time

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