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You can be a stock market genius – Spin offs

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The first topic in the book is Spin-offs. When a company decides to ‘spin-off’ a subsidiary or business, it may issue shares of the division being spun off to the existing shareholders. This spin-off may be 100% where in the parent company distributes its entire holding of the spun-off division to the exisiting shareholders based on the valuation of the division.

For ex: when reliance was split into the petrochemical, communication and other businesses, the shareholder were given shares in the spun off divisions based on the valuation of each business.

Spin-offs may partial where the parent wants the market to realize the value of the division and so by doing a partial spin off, the newly spun off company is now valued by the market independently. This enables the company to demonstrate the hidden value of its subsidiary and get a better valuation for the whole company.

In addition there are a few additional reason for spin-offs

a. The company wishes to spin-off a poorly performing division and improve the valuation of the parent company
b. In a regulated industry, by spinning off the regulated division, the parent can operate in a non regulated environment c. The company wishes to improve the valuation of the company by making the subsidiary an independent company with its own management and policies. This improves the valuation of the parent and the spun off company as both can now focus on their core businesses.

The reasons why spin-offs create an opportunity for the investor are listed below

a. The spun off division may be very small with a low market cap. As a result large instutional investors may not be interested in holding it due to various constraints. This creates a selling pressure and drives down the price.
b. The spun off division with its independent management can now focus on the business better and hence perform better in the future
c. The market may give a better valuation to the spunoff business depending on the nature of the industry in which it operates

update : 03/29

An additional approach to profit from spin offs is to look for situations where the company plans to conduct a rights issue instead of an outright spin-off of the subsidiary. In such cases the company is planning to ‘sell’ the division to its shareholders via a rights issue and raise some capital at the same time.

This modified and rare type of spinoff approach is profitable for the same reason as the usual spin off. In such cases large institutional investors may not subscribe to the offer due to illiquidity of the new issue. In addition if the spin off via rights is beneficial to the insiders , then it would make a lot of sense to subscribe to this spin off via rights purchased from the market or via direct purchase of the parent company’s stock.

An additional point repeated by the author several times in this section is that an investor should analyse closely the actions and motivations of the insiders during the spin off. Does the spin-off benefit the insiders ? do they have a stake on the upside ? Answers to these questions would help an investor make a good decision

You can be a stock market genius – Introduction

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I am currently re-reading the book by ‘Joel Greenblatt’. I will post my thoughts and key points which catch my eye. It is not a book summary or review. Look at it more as running notes on the book (based on memory).

– 8-9 stocks can help one diversify almost 80-90% of the non-market risk. With 20+ stocks the non-market risk reduces by almost 95 % (quoting from memory)
– don’t depend on broker recommendations. They are baised on buy side as they make commision if you buy stocks. Also as there are always more stocks to buy (for an investor) than to sell (one’s holding is limited in comparison to the total universe of available stocks), brokers are more interested in generating buy recommendations. Have seen the same in india. As a result I tend to look at sell recommendations more closely than buy recommendations.
– small cap and midcap is a fertile ground to find undervalued stocks as these stocks are neglected by brokers and also by large investors due to various size, legal and other types of restrictions.

I will keep posting more notes as I continue reading the book

Indo nippon electricals a Value trap?

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I got the following comment on my previous post on Indo nippon electricals

Hi Rohit,
In the absence of latest annual reports, it is difficult to evaluate this.

What is the catalyst that you have in mind which will unlock the value or force the reevaluation?

Earnings are not growing significantly where they would make the market to take notice. In the absence of takeover attempt, it might be a long time (years!) for market to re-evaluate the price.

Some months ago, I had made a purchase of Kothari products (pan parag fame). Its book value is more than the market cap. Tobacco business is a cash minting machine. That’s all the analysis I did at the time of purchase hoping that somehow market will recognise the Graham bargain.

However, later I noticed that the promoters own more than 80% of outstanding shares. There is no incentive for the current owners to reward shareholders. There is no way for a hostile takeover. Ergo, the value trap stays as is. I have moved on in due course – hopefully, wiser.

Best Regards,Ravi

I decided to post my thoughts on ravi’s comment. I have posted on value traps earlier here

i agree, value trap is always a concern in such situations. i have also invested in kothari products in the past (see post
here) with a clear understanding that the underlying business was at best stagnant and the value unlocking would happen if the management did something about the cash. After holding the stock for more than a year (with a small gain), I realised that the management was not interested in any value enhancing measures. On the contrary there was a lot of apathy towards investors. The management had not bothered to update its website with the latest results and there was no way to access their annual report. As a result, I bailed out.

Indo nippon electrical has similar risks. However there are some key differences

1. The underlying business for Indo nippon is healthy and has a small amount of growth
2. The management has been pro-shareholder in the past and has given bonus shares and decent dividends in the past
3. The management has been very rational and efficient user of capital and has kept the return on capital fairly high.
4. They have updated their website with the latest annual and quarterly results

Value unlocking can happen via various actions on part of the management. In case of Indo nippon electricals I expect continued decent performance and passage of time to unlock the value.

However due to the concern of value trap, I have classified this idea as a graham idea. The key approach in such kind of investing is to invest in a group of such stocks (more than 10-15) where the entire group could do well, with some indivdual stocks performing well and some performing poorly. In contrast, focus investing which involves investing heavily in a select few stocks would not work in the above kind of idea. However with valuations being high, I am not able to find too many good ideas in which I can invest heavily.

see here a post on value traps and critical thinking titled ‘Value Delusions and Strategic Thinking’ by rick. he discusses about value traps and how to avoid them towards the end of his post.

A graham idea

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I have come across a value stock – India nippon electricals limited. The investment thesis is as follows (my notes)

About (taken from their website)
INEL was incorporated in 1984 and converted into a joint venture in 1986 between Lucas Indian Service Ltd, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Lucas-TVS Ltd and Kokusan Denki Co. Ltd, Japan – a group company of Hitachi Japan, to manufacture Electronic Ignition Systems for two-wheelers, three wheelers and portable engines. Over the years the company has enlarged its customer base and now supplies to most of the manufacturers of two-wheelers, three wheelers and gensets. The Company’s net sales for the year ended March, 2006 was Rs.1678 Million (USD 37 Million). INEL makes the entire range of 2/3 wheelers, digital and analog ignition products.

Commencing its operation in Hosur (Tamil Nadu), over the years INEL has set up two more units one at Pondicherry and the other at Rewari (Haryana) to be nearer to customers and offer service such as just-in-time supplies and to improve response time for introduction of new products.

INEL’s product portfolio covers all custom-built ignition system parts for various applications for two wheelers, three wheelers or portable engines, offering Ignition System solutions to meet the needs of the whole range of OEM’s in the vehicle industry.

Currently, INEL’s range caters to two stroke / 4 stroke engine capacity of 30cc to 175cc. However, depending upon the needs of customers, INEL has acquired knowledge and capability to provide solutions for other applications also.
INEL specialises in offering ignition system solutions by design, development and manufacturing parts such as Flywheel Magneto, Digital / Analog CDI/TCI, Regulator/Rectifiers and Ignition Coils needed for application on various types of engines fitted on motorcycles, scooters, mopeds, 3 wheelers, portable gensets, lawn movers, wood saw cutters and other types of IC engines.

Financials
The company has grown from 122 Crs to around 168 Cr with a CAGR of around 7%. Net profits have grown by 17% in the same period (CAGR of around 3.5 %). Cash flow growth is higher due to low CAPEX needs and the evidence of cash and equivalents on the balance sheet of around 80 Crs. ROE has been consistently above 20%. The poor growth in topline and Net profit has been due to the pricing pressure from OEM and raw material increases in the last few years. Current year profits seems to be in the range of 20 Crs which would give a rough EPS of 25
In addition, the company has very low debt on the books and an investment portfolio of almost 77 Crs.

Positives
The company is a supplier to all the major 2 and 3 wheeler manufacturers in india (see here). In addition the management has been consistent and prudent in allocating capital and kept the Return on capital high, even when the margins were getting squeezed.

Risks
Further slowdown in 2/3 wheeler growth and additional pricing pressure due to metal price could hurt margins further. The company seems to be working on offsetting by developing new types of fuel injection systems and by exploring the export market

Valuation
At an EPS of 25 ( free cash flow being higher than that), the intrinsic value can be conservatively put at 350-400 Rs. This is low end of the valuation. If the company can grow the top line and maintain margins, then the valuation can be increased by 20-25%.

Open issues ( for me to explore – any inputs would be appreciated)
– long term growth prospects for the company
– Raw material pricing outlook for the company?
– Competitive scenario – any new competitors?
– How is the export plan working out?
– Plans for the cash on balance sheet?

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