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You can be a stock market genius – Bankruptcy and restructuring

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The next section of the book deals with how to profit from bankruptcy and restructuring. As in the other parts of the book, the author again emphasizes the point that an investor should ‘pick his spots’ within the bankruptcy arena.

It is rarely a good idea to purchase the stock in a company which has recently filed for bankruptcy. As the stock holders have the lowest claim when a company files for bankruptcy, usually they end up getting very little or almost nothing at the end of the bankruptcy proceedings.

One way to make money off bankruptcy is to invest in the debt securities of such a company which may be selling at 20-30 % of the face value. However this is a very specialized field which is best left to experts who specialize in this field.

The best way to profit from bankruptcy is to invest in the new common stock of the company which is issued after the completion of the bankruptcy proceedings. Since the stock is issued to the current creditors like banks or suppliers, they are rarely interested in holding the stock due to which there is a selling pressure after the new common stock is issued. This creates a situation similar to spinoffs. However it is critical that the investor analyses the company in detail before buying the common stock as random purchase of such stocks that have recently emerged from bankruptcy will rarely result in superior long term performance. There are several reasons for it. One reason is that most companies that have gone through bankruptcy were in diffcult or unattractive businesses to begin with and shedding debt obligations does not change the basic economics of the business ( think airlines). However if the investor does reasonable due diligence, then he would be able to find a few attractive opportunities which the underlying economics of the business is healthy.

The next area of opportunity is corporate re-structuring. If there is a major re-structuring of a company where a major division is spun off or if a losing business is sold off then such an event can create a profitable opportunity. After spinning off the weaker or money losing division, the resulting company is more profitable and focussed and may be given a higher multiple by the market. In addition the re-structuring can create a more focussed and efficient enterprise which may perform better in the future. Investing in the company after the re-structuring is over can be a profitable option.

Previous post on arbitrage
Previous post on spin-offs

Why I avoid IPO’s

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I have a very irrational reason (yes it is not a typo) for not investing in IPOs. My thinking is like this (A hypothetical tale)

I have a house and wish to sell it. Also I have a decent cash balance and I am no hurry to sell the house. I will sell the house if I can get a good price for it. Looking around I realise that my neighbour has just sold his house at a fantastic price. That tempts me into start looking for buyers and I approach a few brokers to test the market. The brokers are extremely bullish and tell me that this is a good time to sell and the market is hot !. I get all excited and invite a few brokers to come over and look at the house. A few brokers come over and have a look at the house. On inspecting the house, they notice a few problems in the house. The west side wall seems to be weak and roof needs repairing. They ask me to repair the roof and paint the walls so that the these ‘defects’ can be hidden. I go ahead and start the repairs and meanwhile the brokers are looking for buyers.

The broker meets the buyers and tells them that they have a great house on the market. The price for houses in that area have increased by 50% in the recent past and this house is a great deal. The buyer, all excited by the likely appreciation, comes over, looks at the house and agrees to buy it. A somewhat weak roof and wall goes un-noticed because the house is a great ‘investment’. Why bother checking!!

So the deal gets done and everyone is happy. I get a good price, the broker his commission and buyer gets the dream of price appreciation and hopes of profits in the future.

One year later, the RBI in all its wisdom raises the interest rates. The housing market starts slowing. Buyers are now more discerning. They are not buying to invest, but to stay. A house with a weak roof and wall is not a good place to stay. The buyer is finding it difficult to sell the house and has EMI to pay on top of that. Dejectedly he sells the house at a loss and resolves never to get sucked into such a scheme.

Ok, I am not an evil scheming guy 🙂

So now replace me with company, broker with merchant banker, buyer with investor and house with a company and you would get the point.

If I have only X no. of hours in a week to analyse stocks, why waste time looking for needles in an IPO haystack when I can find them more easily in the rest of the market (with full knowledge of all the problems and leaky roof !!)

 

Comments on the Post of Cheviot company

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I received a few comments on my analysis of Cheviot company. Thought of posting it on the blog as they add to the analysis of the company.

Prem Sagar said…
Rohit,

Do you know what the mgmt intends to do with the huge investment portion?
from their last 5 yrs, I see no huge capex and I dont think the mgmt has any plans to invest huge sums into the same business to increase sales or to enter into new avenues to explore new possibilities. So as of now, the investment portion is just sitting on their books without any plan for it, but merely compounding it.
do you think they would do better if they disburse a part of it to shareholders or buy their own shares back?and the industry itself is struck severly by strikes and I can see several instances of strikes for this co alone. and the whole industry doesnt look enticing.
Assuming that the investments are discounted, would you be willing to buy such a co at 2 times?
4/11/2007 12:25:00 AM

Rohit Chauhan said…
Hi prem

very valid concerns. as far as strikes are concerned, i would not be too worried as the company has been able to manage the financial impact of such strikes in the past. unless the company has some very serious labor issues in the future which shuts down the plants for a very long time, i dont think these labor issues should harm the long term economics of the company
the capex needs of the company are low and hence i expect the cash to increase. i have seen no evidence of the management wasting the cash till date. they have given a bonus, decent dividends and seem to be accumulating cash. need to see how the cash gets used. buyback is unlikely as the no. of shares is low (0.45 crs).
cheviot is a graham play and a portfolio of such companies should do well ..although individually a few of them may do badly
4/11/2007 04:06:00 PM

khali_pili_lafda said…
Hi Rohit,

First off great effort on this blog. My observations on Cheviot are below.
1. Jute prices are on the decline on a global scale and may exert pressure on profit margins for Cheviot over the next few years given that export orientation of company has increased.
2. Historically the P/E has always been below 6. Cannot figure out why the markets are unwilling to give Cheviot credit for performance.
3. Company has a lot of cash on hand (Rs543M) with only 4.5M shares outstanding. May be diversifying into Tea – read this online? Saw a spike in Capex in 2003.
4. Labor issues have already been highlighted by you but given that Cheviot operates in West Bengal, labor laws and strikes can be particularly harmful and unpredictable.
5. With only 4.5M shares outstanding – it raises a liquidity red flag since trading may be controlled by a select syndicate. On Apr 12th only 485 shares changed hands although Mkt cap is over 100 crores.
Niraj
4/12/2007 02:35:00 PM

Rohit Chauhan said…
Hi niraj

great comments.my thoughts on the points raised by you
1. i also noticed that jute prices (raw material) is decreasing. i think that is a plus for the company as it improves the net margins for the company (the company sells valued added jute products)
2. i think the historical PE is low because of the various factors in your and prem’s comment. small cap, illiquid stock in an unglamorous industry with labor issues
3. i am not sure that the company has diversified into tea. the 2003 increase in gross asset was a revaluation which was reversed in 2004. i checked this in annual report. the capex for last 5 years has been roughly equal to the depreciation
4.agree with you. however i feel that labor does not represent a threat to the long term economics of the company. it can cause short profits to suffer. although a serious labor trouble could impact my assumption. frankly it would be difficult to evaluate this risk objectively
5. this could be the reason for the low valuation

Priced for bankruptcy – Cheviot company

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I am currently analysing Cheviot company (for company website see here).

The valuation is as follows

No. of shares outstanding – 0.45 Cr
Price per share – 228
Mcap – 103 Cr
Investment/ cash on book – 63 (last year)+ 10 Crs (this year) = 73 Crs
Net value = 103-73 = 30 Crs
Current year expected NP = 23 Crs

The company seems to be priced for 1-2 years earnings. The market seems to valuing the company with a horizon of 1-2 years and expects the company to be out of business after that !!.

Background

Cheviot company is a West bengal based company into the manufacture and sale of Jute based products. Almost 70% of the sale is export and the rest is domestic (Page 6 of Annual report).

The company has been in business for more than 100 years and is currently the most profitable in its industry (the jute industry as a whole is sick and incurring losses). The company has two manufacturing units, one at Budge budge and the other at Falta. The unit at Budge budge is having some labor trouble which may impact the Topline for the company.

Financials

The company has had a ROC of almost 20%+ for the last few years (if one excludes cash). The company has been consistently profitable and has good free cash flows ( equal to net profits).

In addition, although the volumes have come down, the company has moved up the value chain and has been able to improve realization for the end product (Raw material cost as % of Sales has been coming down over the years). The topline has increase with a CAGR of 6% for the last five years whereas the Net profit has increased by 15% CAGR over the same period.

The company has almost 73 Crs cash on book which has been invested in mutual funds and other liquid investment.

Risk
The indian government has made jute the mandatory packaging material for food grains and sugar to support the industry. In addition the government also provides marketing assistance for the export market which is received as a credit. Thus the industry is surviving based on this support from the government.
The company currently has labor unrest in one of its units which may impact the short term profitability. In addition, this industry is marked by labor issues and strikes.

Conclusion
In my view, the strike could impact the topline for a quarter or two, but it is not a long term risk. In addition, the company has been concentrating on the export market and as a result could continue to do well.

The market is currently discounting all the above issues and more and pricing the company for bankruptcy, which does not seem probable.

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