About
Ultramarine is a chemical company with three divisions.

Pigments division – This is the oldest division which makes ultramarine blue pigment which is as a colorant, optical whitener and in paint finishes. The same division also makes LAB which is used in detergents. This division had a revenue of around 45 Crs and a pre – tax margin of around 18 % in 2006

IT enabled services – This is a small division of the company engaged in BPO and engineering services. This division had a revenue of around 15 Crs and margins of 50% in 2006

Packaging products – This division had a revenue of around 9 Crs and a margin of just 7 %. This division had a turnaround in the performance in 2006

The company level margins have marked a sudden rise from 2003 , due to the turnaround in the IT services division and positive contribution of the packaging division

Financials
The company had a turnover of 63 Crs last year and may close the year at 65-70 Crs. The net profit was 15.6 crs last year and may come to 18-19 Crs for the current year.
The company has a 20% holding in thirumalai chemicals on its books which is valued at almost 42 Crs and there are cash equivalents of around 10 Crs
The company has high margins of around 20% + and ROC has been in 25%+ range. In addition the company is debt (the debt on books is interest free sales tax loan)

Positives
The company is shareholder friendly. It has a good dividend payout of almost 50% of net profit (2007 dividend was Rs 3 per share). In addition the company has given bonus issue and has split the stock in the past.
The management seems to be allocating capital rationally and not blowing it away. In addition the IT services division does not require a very high amount of capital.

Risks
This is a very small company. With a 15 Cr revenue from IT services and lack visibility of clients, the revenue stream may not be very stable.
The pigments business is a commodity business and may not offer very high margins and returns. The valuation upside for the company depends on the IT services business continuing its performance as it contributes to almost 50% of the net profits.

Valuation
The company has almost 52 Crs on it balance sheet. However this is unlikely to be realised by shareholders as it is mainly investment in a sister concern – thirumalai chemicals. With a net profit of almost 18-19 Crs, the company can be valued at around 210-220 Crs which is almost 70% higher than the current price.

Conclusion
This is a deep value stock. The company is a small cap company, shareholder friendly with very low competitive advantages. The stock can be purchased as a graham type stock as a part of a portfolio and should be liquidated at 90% of the intrinsic value

Statutory warning – A long post with links to other analysis.

I have analysed the oil & gas industry and specifically refineries earlier (see here). In addition an analyis of the industry is also posted on my spreadsheet.

The oil majors have not been a part of the current bull run and the main reason is the convoluted pricing and subsidy structure. As a result the sector is not doing too well and may have some opportunities.

I have developed an investment thesis for HPCL which is given below

About
HPCL is one of the Oil majors with almost 13MMT refining capacity. It is engaged in the business of refining crude and marketing end products. In addition it is also integrating backwards into E&P, lube marketing via its Lube SBU and into the Gas distribution business.

The problem
The Oil & gas business in india has one of the worst economics possible. The pricing though supposed to be decontrolled, is still controlled by the government. As a result in a rising crude price scenario, where other Oil majors across the world are minting money, companies like HPCL, BPCL, IOC etc have been bleeding.

The typical Gross refining margins for companies like RPL has been around 10 usd per barrel. A company like HPCL should easily be able to make 6-7 usd / barrel. However in the last 1-2 years the Gross margins have been 3-4 and net margins have been around 1 usd/ barrel.

The above is due to subsidized sales of products such as Petrol, diesel and kerosene etc Due to the above situation, O&G companies have been beaten down and now sell below replacement value of their asset.

The opportunity and investment thesis
HPCL now sells at around 9000 crores. The EV is around 10000-11000 crores at best.

The replacement cost for the assets of HPCL can be calculated as follows

1.Refinery – 13MMT ( greefields projects cost around 1200-1800 Crs/ MMT) – 19000 (approximate)
2.Petrol pumps / retail outlets – 7313 (average cost atleast 1 cr/ outlet – 7000 Crs (approximate)
3.LPG distributors – 2202, customers 2.28 crores – ??
4.Other gas assets such as pipeline – 2000 Crs + (1700 crs invested in last 5 years), avantika gas, Bhagyanagar gas etc.
5.Other assets – some value
6. JV’s – MRP (17%) – 1200 Crs and other JV’s

The above assets can conservatively be valued at 25000 – 30000 Crs. So the company sells at 25-30 % of the replacement value of its assets.

The above discount is definitely not an abberation. It is mainly due to policies of the government. However I think the gap is higher than it should be and the main reason is that the market is assuming that the current state of affairs would continue as is.

I don’t believe the government is going to change its ways, however I think the bottom line of company should improve due to the following reasons

1. The company is currently engaged in diversifying its revenue streams via various initiatives and reduce the impact of the pig headed policies of the government. These initiatives are lube marketing, Gas distribution and retail initiatives and oil trading and risk management. The market is currently not valuing any of these real options.
2. The GRM and net refining margins are at their lowest. Going forward the worst case sceanrio is that they would remain at the same level. If that is the case, the bottom line should still improve as the various company intiatives take effect (see page 53 of Annual report)
3. The 9 MMT refinery and expansion of Vizag refinery to 15 MMT and export of the petro-products and E&P activities should help the company improve its margins going forward.

Conclusion
Although there exists a substantial discount to the assets value and possible cash flows, the gap is not likely to close any time soon. However even if the market reduces the gap to 50-60% of asset value, the returns should be reasonable. In addition the company is selling at a 5 year low in terms of its PE and P/B ratio. The key triggers to watch would be crude prices and the level to which the government compensates for the underrecoveries.