CategoryMarket analysis

Initial analysis shows good performance from major companies. Major companies continue to do well. The profit growth is good. Return on capital is good. This is inspite of supply side inflation due to rising oil and commodity prices, high competition.

The market at 6500 does not look too expensive , provided corporate india is able maintain its return on capital (read efficiency), inflation remains moderate and the goverment doesnt do something stupid.

Most of the news channel / website are talking of record highs in the stock market. This is clearly rear mirror view. The absolute level of the stock market does not matter. The current levels should be analysed keeping in mind the following factors

1) return on capital for corporate india – currently 20% plus

2) inflation – moderate inspite of oil prices

3) robust demand

All in all the overall corporate performance gives me confidence to hold on to my positions , maybe add to a few too

I would value the market like a stock ( the Sensex or the nifty is essentially a combination 30 or 50 stocks )

I would look at three factors to judge whether market is expensive or cheap

a) The current return on equity of the market as a whole

b) The current interest rates

c) The forward growth rate expected of the market

a and b are facts and c an estimate and hence any judgement is an estimate.

The current rate is around 18-20 % ( i do have exact numbers ). The interest rates (risk free) is around 7 % . Both these numbers from historical perspective are better than the average.The returns have been a bit lower and the interest rates a bit higher.

The forward growth rate can be conservatively be estimated at atleast the GDP growth of 5 % ( last decade number ). In reality it has been around 10 % but it always pays to be conservative

So with these three inputs and with some historical perspective that the average PE of indian markets have been 15-16 on average , we can assume that the market is slightly undervalued (from a long term perspective)

If the indian industry keeps doing well ( rate of return holds) and the inflation does not spike, the current levels do not look overlvalued

In my entire analysis there are’nt too many hard figures …only expectations and assumptions

Well any ‘expert’ or layman (like mine) opinion is just that – a set of expectations and assumption which subsequent events can invalidate

So what i am doing – well for one not selling the index ( which one can through futures or ETF ) , but not buying too , because the market does not give a ‘margin of safety’ at these levels

with a 12 % crash the market now offers a 10:1 odds (less that 10 % loss ) on a long term basis.

nse website gives the 5 year daily pe from jan 99 to till date. using that data shows that the nse index has gone below a pe of 12.9 (current pe ) only 10 % of the time.

although this may not hold true going forward , the risk reward is now favourable for a rational and patient investor. with the current risk free rates at 6 % and high ROE , the market is in an attractive zone

The sudden uncertainity has created a buying situation in the stock market. At 14.5 PE the market has started looking attractive.

For fundamental investors, the performance of the companies which continues to be good would matter more in the long term.

Any further drops should be better from buyer’s perspective