AuthorRohit Chauhan

Porter’s five forces model and buffet’s concept of moat

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Buffet refers to the concept of moat or sustainable competitive advantage as one of the most critical factor in determining the returns for a long term investor (in addition to other criteria)

I have been reading porter’s book ‘on competition’ and trying to get a better understanding of how to evaluate a company’s competitive advantage for a long term investment.

The five forces model is very helpful in understanding the industry structure and kind of long term returns to expect in an industry. What i was able to ‘understand’ this time (have read the topic several times ) is that not all the factors are equally important and for an investor it is critical to asses which factors impact the industry and the company more and would influence the long term returns.

More important for a long term investor is to understand, how the five factors of competition will change and determine the future returns.

I am now trying the above exercise for some industries like FMCG/IT services / Banking etc . A good evaluation and insight into the trends would be far more useful that chasing some price targets or trying to predict the next quarter which in munger’s words would be ‘twaddle’

Checking on britannia industries – further update

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After the last post, i started analysing britannia further. Liked the following in the company then
– An ROE of 25 %
– almost zero debt
– growth in upper single digits
– A p/e of around 13
– Cash / investment on balance sheet of around Rs 100 / share
In addition the company has good brands, good marketing and distribution infrastructure and reasonable economies of scale.

However on doing a bit of detailed check , i realised that almost 40-50 % of the NP is other income from investment activities which makes the operating pe of almost 20-22 ( after

So the company no longer looks very cheap. in addition i cant get my hands around how the management proposes to use the cash flows. Its core business needs very little cash. They are doing buybacks …but not much ( share count has come down by some 5 – 10 % ). So the company seems to be piling cash and putting it into various investment.

now the above situation although not worrying , does not excite me into putting my money into the company. Most likely i will watch the company for some more time, before doing something

so i guess its time to move the next company !!!

Analysing Goldiam industries

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Heard of this company some time back. I have started looking at it. This company is into Diamond and gold jewelry exports. It’s main market is US . It is into designing jewelry, managing the logisitics etc . Some positives

– Good ROE
– Very low fixed assets
– moderate WCAP requirement. Mainly in the Raw material inventory
– 10 % plus Net margins
– No debt
– 40 Rs / share of cash on the balance sheet

Some points which i need to figure
– what is the nature of the ‘investments’ in the balance sheet.
– what are the long term plans of the company
– nature of competition ?
– How good is the management. The company seems to have good Fresh cash flow. Other than some captial required for WCAP , the FA requirements are very low. So most of the Net profit is free cash for the company. Need to figure out what the company would be doing with the cash.

The biggest pain however is that the company’s website does not have their annual report or detail financial results. That is could be real dampener !!

Evaluating asian paints

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asian paints has been the no.1 paints company for the last 20+ years. This company has returned almost 24% p.a returns since its IPO. Are these returns sustainable ?

Even if the level of returns may not be , i have always felt the company has strong and sustainable competitive advantages like

– A strong distribution network with lockin at key retail dealers through their color world package
– Strong brands in the paints industry like apcolite, apex, gattu etc
– economies of scale in manufacturing, adverstising distribution due to the high market shares (40 %+ )
– good pricing power as the company has been able to sustain margins inspite of raw material price increases
– good management – evident through the track record of managing low WCAP, low debt, sensible accquisitions and good brands and products

In the medium to long term the company should continue to do well in india. The challenge for the company is to port these strengths to their internation operations. That seems to be happening for the time being

Buffet’s talk at Notre Dame

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I recently came across the transcript of a talk which buffet gave at Notre dame. A few gems from the talk (paraphrased )
‘You don’t want to buy a dollar bill that’s sitting for 50 cents, and it demands positive
capital, and its going to be a dollar bill ten years from now. You want a dollar bill that’s
going to compound at 12%’
‘A couple of fast tests about how good a business is. First question is “how long does the
management have to think before they decide to raise prices?” You’re looking at
marvelous business when you look in the mirror and say “mirror mirror on the wall, how
much should I charge for Coke this fall?” That’s a great business. When you say, like we
used to in the textile business, when you get down on your knees, you know you call in
all the priests, rabbis, and everyone else, “just another half cent a yard”. Then you get up
and they say “We won’t pay it”. Its just night and day. You KNOW those businesses. I
mean, if you walk into a drugstore, and you say “I’d like a Hershey bar” and the man says
“I don’t’ have any Hershey bars, but I’ve got this unmarked chocolate bar, and its a nickel
cheaper than a Hershey bar” you just go across the street and buy a Hershey bar. THAT is
a good business.’
The ability to raise prices; the ability to differentiate yourself in a REAL way, and a REAL way means you can charge a different price, that makes a great business.
I’d like to talk to you for just a few minutes about what I regard as the most important
thing in investments and also in terms of your career. Because in your career what train
you get on makes a lot of difference. Because frequently, perhaps generally, when people
get out of business school, they don’t give enough thought to exactly what sort of train
they’re going to get on. And it makes a tremendous difference whether you get involved
in a prosperous company; one that’s going to really do well. On balance, you want to go
with a company whose stock is going to be a good investment over the years because
there’s going to be much more opportunity; there’s going to be more money made, you’re
going to (garbled). And if you get involved with some of the businesses I’ve been
involved with like trading stamps
One is a marvelous, absolutely sensational business, the other one is a terrible business. If
you have a choice between going to work for a wonderful business that is not capital
intensive, and one that is capital intensive, I suggest that you look at the one that is not
capital intensive.
I read all kinds of business publications. I read a lot of industry publications. Coming in
today on the plane (garbled). I’ll grab whatever comes in the morning. American Banker
comes every day, so I’ll read that. I’ll read the Wall Street Journal. Obviously. I’ll read
Editor and Publisher, I’ll read Broadcasting, I’ll read Property Casualty Review, I’ll read
Jeffrey Meyer’s Beverage Digest. I’ll read everything. And I own 100 shares of almost
every stock I can think of just so I know I’ll get all the reports. And I carry around
prospectuses and proxy material. Don’t read broker’s reports. You should be very careful
with those.
– In addition buffet goes the economics of various businesses such as coke, gillette, textile and other commodity business
A must read for an investor.

Checking on Britannia industries

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Started looking at britannia industries. It is selling for around 14 times FY05 earnings. The bottom line seems to be growing in low teens. There is very low debt on the balance sheet. In addition found the following interesting
– 30 % ROE
– almost 100 Rs / per investment – need to figure out what is this investment ( net of debt )
– Very high asset TO ratios.
– good free cash flow
– slight improvement in the margin (which seem adequate for an FMCG company )
– strong brands , extensive distribution network, good history of new products

What i still need to figure out
– The NP growth is almost to the tune of 30 % for the year. How sustainable is it ?
– Competitive scenario – ITC / HLL entry into brakery business, how will it impact britannia
– How will the management handle the free cash flows ? will they continue share buybacks or make some bad accquisitions or investments ( need to figure out these investments)

One the strangest points is that britannia does not have a website. How can a 1000 crore + company not have a website ? So it is diffcult to get their annual report

Business mirage

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A few years back i became interested in moser baer. This company seemed (on the face of it ) to be doing very well. It was getting into a product (CD) which was growing fast. The margins were great. The return on capital was high. The valuation looked great.

But then digging deeper, there were a few things which troubled

– was the depreciation enough to take care of the rate of obselence of the Fixed assets in the fast changing memory business
– how would the margins behave when 1) growth slowed down 2) the price deflation continued and accelerated ( memory prices have dropped by factor of 10 in the last 3-4 years )
– the business seems to be needing regular equity infusion for growth (maybe not important if the business is in high growth phase )

I was looking at the latest results and inspite of the topline growth the margins seem to be dropping. In addittion CD/DVD are getting cheaper by the month. so there is going to a constant pressure on margins. End of the day, it is a commodity business where the price of the product just keeps dropping. In addition , any new memory would require new captial equipment and hence more capital ( especially if it is a new technology )

So the business looks profitable , but if one looks closely ,the money coming out has a mirage like feel …you can see it , but never touch it

Charlie munger – Wesco meeting 2005

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I was reading the transcipts of the meeting on fool.com . There were several comments from munger which really impressed me.

– He referred to a “seamless web of deserved trust” which is necessary to run any large coporation. This is a profound idea. how companies in india work this way ?
– he talked out currency trading being a zero sum game. he would prefer equity where it is not a zero sum game
– he talked about lowering return expectations in the current environment. Annhieser busch could that example. A certain investment with lower return. This is important. Better to be sure of lower returns that optimisitic of fantastic results

Found the Q&A really fantastic.

Warren Buffett’s talk with students at Tuck school of business

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I came across a transcript buffett’s talk with the students at Tuck school of business. I have pasted the link below. What i found intersting (actually the entire talk was very interesting) were the replies to the following two questions

Q: I have worked in various technologies businesses, but I understand that you do not typically invest in the technology sector. Why is that? How do you view technology as an individual and as an investor?
A: Technology is clearly a boost to business productivity and a driver of better consumer products and the like, so as an individual I have a high appreciation for the power of technology. I have avoided technology sectors as an investor because in general I don’t have a solid grasp of what differentiates many technology companies. I don’t know how to spot durable competitive advantage in technology. To get rich, you find businesses with durable competitive advantage and you don’t overpay for them. Technology is based on change; and change is really the enemy of the investor. Change is more rapid and unpredictable in technology relative to the broader economy. To me, all technology sectors look like 7-foot hurdles.

Q: I worked in the paper and packaging business this past summer and really enjoyed my experience. None of my classmates are interested in the paper business and the company I worked for has not had MBA interns in years. Clearly the paper business has its challenges, but do you see this as an opportunity or a roadblock?
A: Well, you’ve got it right that the paper business is challenged. High capital intensity, low margins, cyclical. It is a brutal business; no one cares who made the box their Dell computer came shipped in. In general, commodity businesses, even you’re the low-cost producer, are difficult. There are generally two recommendations I offer to college and business school graduates. The most important thing about where you work is that you admire/love it. So it sounds like you liked your experience, and that’s great. But we come to my second recommendation, which is to get on the right train; that is, moving in the right direction. There’s no course in business school called “Getting on the Right Train”, but it’s really important. You can be an average passenger but if you get on the right train it will carry you a long way. You want to learn from experience, but you want to learn from other people’s experience when you can. Managing your career is like investing – the degree of difficulty does not count. So you can save yourself money and pain by getting on the right train.

So makes one think, how will some of the current ‘performers’ like maruti, tisco, telco and others will perform in the long run. Some of these have high return on equity, but is it sustainable over a complete business cycle

here’s the link :http://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/clubs/investment/WarrenBuffet.html

BRK buys Annhieser Busch (BUD)

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Looks like a typical buffett move. A company with strong brands such as Budwieser, oligopolistic industry , very high Return on equity for the company, strong distribution, a product / business model which will not change (who is going to stop drinking beer ??) and hence predicable.

seems the only disadvantage is the mcap of the company is small so BRK cannot take a very big position

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